For polygenic traits like hip dysplasia, a dog’s own score only tells you so much — it can be affected by chance, environment, and how many relatives’ data exist to compare against. Estimated breeding values combine a dog’s own results with its relatives’ to produce a more statistically reliable prediction of what it’s likely to pass on. This guide explains what EBVs are and how to use them.
The most important first
- An EBV predicts a dog’s genetic merit for a trait, using its own and its relatives’ data together.
- EBVs are generally more reliable than an individual dog’s own score alone, especially for polygenic traits.
- Available EBVs vary by breed, trait and country — not every dog or every trait has one.
- A dog’s own phenotype score and its EBV can genuinely differ, and the EBV is usually the better predictor.
- Use EBVs to compare mating options, alongside the other tools in this area.
Why a dog’s own score isn’t the whole story
A single hip or elbow score reflects one dog’s outcome, which is shaped by genetics and chance and environment — growth rate, exercise, weight as a puppy. Two genetically similar dogs can score somewhat differently simply due to environmental noise, and a dog with few tested relatives gives you less information to separate the genetic signal from that noise than one with many tested relatives. Estimated breeding values address this by statistically combining a dog’s own result with the results of its relatives — parents, siblings, offspring — to estimate the dog’s actual genetic merit for the trait, which is a more stable and more heritable-focused figure than any single score.
How to read and use an EBV
An EBV is typically expressed relative to a breed average, showing whether a dog is likely to pass on better- or worse-than-average genetics for that trait, along with a measure of how reliable the estimate is — reliability improves as more relatives’ data feed into the calculation. A dog with a moderate own-score but a favorable EBV (one pointing to lower-than-average genetic risk, because its relatives consistently score well) may be a genetically better prospect for that trait than a dog with an excellent own-score but an unfavorable EBV (because its relatives score poorly) — the EBV is picking up a genetic signal the single score can’t isolate on its own.
In the UK Royal Kennel Club system, every EBV is measured against the breed average, which is set at zero. A negative number means the dog is estimated to carry less genetic risk than average; a positive number means more. Each EBV also comes with a confidence (accuracy) figure. A dog with its own hip score but no scored relatives sits at roughly 60% confidence, while a dog with no score of its own and only its parents’ results sits lower. Other countries and schemes may report EBVs differently, so check how your scheme defines “better” before comparing dogs.
Because a puppy’s first EBV is the average of its parents’, you can compare likely genetic risk long before a young dog can be screened. That makes EBVs most useful when choosing a mate, not only when assessing an adult.
In practice
Two stud dogs both have respectable hip scores. One has an EBV showing his genetic merit for hip conformation is below breed average, because several of his siblings and offspring have scored poorly. The other’s EBV is well above average, with consistent good results across many relatives. Despite similar own-scores, the second dog is the statistically safer choice for improving hip conformation in the next generation.
(Illustrative, composite scenario.)
Where EBVs are and aren’t available
EBVs require enough tested relatives and breed-level data infrastructure to calculate reliably, so they exist for some breeds and traits (commonly hip and elbow dysplasia in breeds with strong participation in national screening schemes) and not others. Where an EBV isn’t available for your breed or trait, the dog’s own screening score, its pedigree, and honest evaluation remain the tools you have — EBVs are an enhancement to good decision-making, not a prerequisite for it.
EBVs are only as good as the data behind them. When owners submit only their best radiographs, the breed’s estimates become biased. Submitting every result, including disappointing ones, makes everyone’s EBVs more reliable. Long-term records from the US show that steady selection on screening results has already reduced hip and elbow dysplasia across many breeds, and researchers expect EBVs to speed that progress. An EBV is still an estimate: it lowers risk on average, but it cannot promise unaffected puppies, and the dog’s own screening result remains its diagnosis.
Work on it
A few minutes here will teach you more than re-reading the article.
Ask yourself
- Are EBVs available for any traits in my breed, and do I know how to access them?
- Do I understand why an EBV can differ meaningfully from a dog’s own screening score?
- Would I weigh a favorable EBV over a merely good own-score when choosing between two mating candidates?
Find out & check
- Find out whether your national kennel club or breed council publishes EBVs for your breed.
- Check the EBV, where available, for a dog you’re considering using, alongside its own screening score.
Do one thing
- Look up whether hip or elbow EBVs exist for your breed, and if so, check them for your current breeding dogs.
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Sources & further reading
- The Royal Kennel Club — Estimated breeding values (EBVs). royalkennelclub.com
- Wilson BJ, Nicholas FW, James JW, Wade CM, Thomson PC (2013) — Estimated breeding values for canine hip dysplasia radiographic traits in a cohort of Australian German Shepherd dogs, PLOS ONE 8(10):e77470. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Oberbauer AM, Keller GG, Famula TR (2017) — Long-term genetic selection reduced prevalence of hip and elbow dysplasia in 60 dog breeds, PLOS ONE 12(2):e0172918. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- British Veterinary Association — Canine Health Schemes: Hip Scheme. bva.co.uk
- Fédération Cynologique Internationale (FCI) — International Breeding Strategies. fci.be
- Lewis TW, Blott SC, Woolliams JA (2013) — Comparative analyses of genetic trends and prospects for selection against hip and elbow dysplasia in 15 UK dog breeds, BMC Genetics 14:16. PMC
Where evidence is limited, recommendations rest on established practice and expert judgment, and may be updated as knowledge develops.
Next steps
- Read next: Health databases and how to interpret published results.
- Related: Health screening and health schemes · Polygenic and complex traits.
- Return to the area hub: Genetics and inherited health.